Journal of Marketing Behavior > Vol 2 > Issue 2–3

Marketers' Intuitions about the Sales Effectiveness of Advertisements

Nicole Hartnett, University of South Australia, Australia, Nicole.Hartnett@marketingscience.info Rachel Kennedy, University of South Australia, Australia, Byron Sharp, University of South Australia, Australia, Luke Greenacre, University of South Australia, Australia,
 
Suggested Citation
Nicole Hartnett, Rachel Kennedy, Byron Sharp and Luke Greenacre (2016), "Marketers' Intuitions about the Sales Effectiveness of Advertisements", Journal of Marketing Behavior: Vol. 2: No. 2–3, pp 177-194. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/107.00000034

Published: 29 Dec 2016
© 2016 N. Hartnett, R. Kennedy, B. Byron, and L. Greenacre
 
Subjects
Individual Decision Making,  Marketing Decisions Models,  Marketing Information Systems
 
Keywords
AdvertisingConsumer packaged goodsTelevisionCreativityIndividual Decision MakingMarketing Decisions ModelsMarketing Information Systems
 

Article Help

Share

Download article
In this article:
Importance of Choosing Quality Ads
How Good Are Marketers at Predicting More Effective Ads?
Intuition and Decision-making
Intuition and Decision-making in Advertising
Research Objectives
Method
Results
Discussion
References

Abstract

Advertisements vary enormously in their sales effectiveness, so choosing the more effective advertisements to air is an important marketing task. Such decisions are often made intuitively. This study assesses the intuitive predictions made by a global sample of marketers regarding which television ads are more or less sales effective. The findings show that marketers’ predictions were correct no more often than random chance. Multivariate analysis suggests that those with category experience and those in marketing or consumer insights roles make slightly better predictions. Aside from who makes better predictions, further research is needed on how to improve advertising decisions, including use of evidence-based decision support systems and team decision-making.

DOI:10.1561/107.00000034

Erratum

|

Commentary Submitted By: Ville Satopää, INSEAD. Date Accepted: 1/2/2017

  • The correct reference for Ungar et al. 2012 is: Lyle Ungar, Barb Mellors, Ville Satopää, Jon Baron, Phil Tetlock, Jaime Ramos, and Sam Swift (2012), “The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions,” in AAAI Technical Report FS-12-06, Machine Aggregation of Human Judgment. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania.

Companion

Managerial Decision Making in Marketing: Introduction to the Special Issue , Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000030
This is the introduction from special issue editor B. Wierenga.

Companion

Kind and Wicked Experience in Marketing Management , Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000031
This article by R. M. Hogarth and E. Soyer deals with the role of experience in marketing.

Companion

The Marketing Manager as an Intuitive Statistician , Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000032
This article by B. de Langhe is about the marketing manager as an intuitive statistician.

Companion

Managerial Decision-Making in Marketing: Matching the Demand and Supply Side of Creativity , Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000033
This article by N. Althuizen, B. Wierenga, and B. Chen provides an overview of creativity research in marketing and offers a novel framework for matching the demand and supply side of creativity.

Companion

Selecting Predictive Metrics for Marketing Dashboards - An Analytical Approach , Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000035
This article by K. Pauwels and A. Joshi is about the selection of predictive measures for marketing dashboards.

Companion

Sales Presentation Anxiety, Cortisol Levels, Self-Reports, and Gene-Gene Interactions , Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 10.1561/107.00000036
This article by W. Verbeke, R. P. Bagozzi, W. van den Berg, L. Worm, and F. D. Belschak uses methods from neuroscience to study the mechanism behind SPA at three levels, genetic make-up, endocrine processes and self-reported stress experience.

Companion

Journal of Marketing Behavior, Volume 2, Issue 2-3 ICT-based Strategies for Environmental Conflicts: Articles Overiew
See the other articles that are part of this special issue.