Quarterly Journal of Political Science > Vol 1 > Issue 3

Electoral Victory and Statistical Defeat? Economics, Politics, and the 2004 Presidential Election

William Nordhaus, Yale University,
 
Suggested Citation
William Nordhaus (2006), "Electoral Victory and Statistical Defeat? Economics, Politics, and the 2004 Presidential Election", Quarterly Journal of Political Science: Vol. 1: No. 3, pp 313-322. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/100.00000014

Published: 03 Jul 2006
© 2006 W. Nordhaus
 
Subjects
Presidential politics,  Campaigns,  Political economy,  Religion and politics
 

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In this article:
The 2004 Election Using Aggregate Election Equations
Further Evidence From Exit Polls
Conclusion

Abstract

The 2004 election has been interpreted as a resounding victory for conservative values. Was it in fact a mandate? The present analysis examines recent electoral outcomes and the 2004 election with particular reference to economic and political fundamentals. It compares the results of the 2004 election with predictions using voting models. Additionally, it identifies the trends for different socioeconomic groups. It concludes that the Republican incumbent candidate in 2004 did significantly worse than would be predicted based on economic and political variables such as incumbency and economic performance.

DOI:10.1561/100.00000014

Replication Data | 100.00000014_supp.zip (ZIP).

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DOI: 10.1561/100.00000014_supp