Strategic Behavior and the Environment > Vol 6 > Issue 1-2

Modeling Negotiations Over Water and Ecosystem Management: Uncertainty and Political Viability

Rachael E. Goodhue, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Davis, USA, goodhue@primal.ucdavis.edu Susan Stratton Sayre, Department of Economics, Smith College, USA, Leo K. Simon, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, USA and Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University, Australia, USA,
 
Suggested Citation
Rachael E. Goodhue, Susan Stratton Sayre and Leo K. Simon (2016), "Modeling Negotiations Over Water and Ecosystem Management: Uncertainty and Political Viability", Strategic Behavior and the Environment: Vol. 6: No. 1-2, pp 73-134. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/102.00000067

Published: 15 Dec 2016
© 2016 R. E. Goodhue, S. S. Sayre, and L. K. Simon
 
Subjects
Environmental Economics,  Environmental Economics: Endangered Species,  Formal modelling,  Game theory,  Public policy,  Uncertainty,  Water
 
Keywords
JEL Codes: P48Q25Q34
Pareto optimalityDeltaCaliforniapolitical economydeep uncertaintyrobust decision makingmodeling uncertainty.
 

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In this article:
Introduction
Predictive Political Economy Model
Case Study: Politically Viable Solutions to California's Delta Crisis
Delta Results
Other Applications
Conclusion
Technical Appendix
Modeling Negotiations over Water and Ecosystem Management: Uncertainty and Political Viability
References

Abstract

We present a modeling approach for generating robust predictions about how changes in institutional, economic, and political considerations will influence the outcome of political negotiations over complex water-ecosystem policy debates. Evaluating the political viability of proposed policies is challenging for researchers in these complex natural and political environments; there is limited information with which to map policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. Our analysis evaluates the viability of policy options using a probabilistic political viability criterion that explicitly recognizes the existence of modeling uncertainty. The approach is used to conduct a detailed case study of the future of California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Several other possible applications of the approach are briefly discussed.

DOI:10.1561/102.00000067