Journal of Forest Economics > Vol 17 > Issue 3

The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster–Shafer method

Iacopo Bernetti, , Christian Ciampi, , Claudio Fagarazzi, , Sandro Sacchelli, , sandro.sacchelli@unifi.it
 
Suggested Citation
Iacopo Bernetti, Christian Ciampi, Claudio Fagarazzi and Sandro Sacchelli (2011), "The evaluation of forest crop damages due to climate change. An application of Dempster–Shafer method", Journal of Forest Economics: Vol. 17: No. 3, pp 285-297. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfe.2011.04.005

Published: 0/8/2011
© 0 2011 Iacopo Bernetti, Christian Ciampi, Claudio Fagarazzi, Sandro Sacchelli
 
Subjects
 
Keywords
JEL Codes:Q19Q54
Dempster–Shafer theory of evidenceClimate changeForestryFuzzy setsSpatial analysisUncertainty
 

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In this article:
Introduction
Methodological framework
Study area and data
Results and discussion
Conclusions

Abstract

In order to assess damage risk caused by climate change in forest areas, Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and fuzzy measures were applied to develop a framework for the estimation of economic forest damage. According to the definition of risk supported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a function of hazard and resilience lines of evidence was defined. The results of the hazard and resilience assessment were used to develop an economic framework based on Faustmann studies. The evaluation model, implemented through a spatial analysis procedure, was carried out linking Faustmann formula with hazard and resilience raster maps. The model permitted to estimate in monetary terms two possible costs to be supported: the first one is expressed as the expected damage to the forest crop on the basis of the current obtainable woody assortments and the second one referred to the potential expenses to pay in order to mitigate the risk. Finally, the framework was tested on an area of central Italy (Tuscany region).

DOI:10.1016/j.jfe.2011.04.005