Journal of Forest Economics > Vol 20 > Issue 1

Stumpage prices in Sweden 1909–2012: Testing for non-stationarity

Lars Hultkrantz, , Linda Andersson, Panagiotis Mantalos
Suggested Citation
Lars Hultkrantz, Linda Andersson and Panagiotis Mantalos (2014), "Stumpage prices in Sweden 1909–2012: Testing for non-stationarity", Journal of Forest Economics: Vol. 20: No. 1, pp 33-46.

Publication Date: 0/1/2014
© 0 2014 Lars Hultkrantz, Linda Andersson, Panagiotis Mantalos
RoundwoodTimberNatural-resource rentsUnit root


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In this article:
Timber supply and the timber price process 
Stumpage prices in Sweden 1909–2012 
Testing for unit root 


The price of timber stumpage is one of the few natural-resource rents that can be directly observed as a market price. Rules for optimal timber harvesting under uncertainty have been found to depend on whether the timber rent price is non-stationary or stationary. In this study we extend previous research by Hultkrantz (1995) that tested for unit-root with an exogenous break point in Swedish stumpage prices from 1909 to 1990, employing data up to 2012, hence for 104 years, and unit-root tests with endogenously selected break points. We find support for a structural level break at the end of WW2 and that non-stationarity can be rejected. We show that this is a robust conclusion. There is thus no sign of a new break in the extended recent time period and no signal of a secular increase of timber resource scarcity.