Journal of Forest Economics > Vol 34 > Issue 1-2

Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector

Adam Daigneault, University of Maine, USA, adam.daigneault@maine.edu Craig Johnston, University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA, Anu Korosuo, IIASA, Austria, Justin S. Baker, RTI International, USA, Nicklas Forsell, IIASA, Austria, Jeffrey P. Prestemon, USDA Forest Service, USA, Robert C. Abt, North Carolina State University, USA,
 
Suggested Citation
Adam Daigneault, Craig Johnston, Anu Korosuo, Justin S. Baker, Nicklas Forsell, Jeffrey P. Prestemon and Robert C. Abt (2019), "Developing Detailed Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) Narratives for the Global Forest Sector", Journal of Forest Economics: Vol. 34: No. 1-2, pp 7-45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000441

Published: 07 Aug 2019
© 2019 A. Daigneault, C. Johnston, A. Korosuo, J. S. Baker, N. Forsell, J. P. Prestemon and R. C. Abt
 
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Keywords
JEL Codes:Q23Q27Q28Q54Q56
Land use policyforest carbonbioenergyconsumptiontechnologicalchangemodelling
 

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In this article:
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
References

Abstract

This paper presents a series of narratives that can be used to define possible future trends in the global forest sector across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which we refer to as Forest Sector Pathways (FSPs). SSPs are part of a new scenario framework established by the climate change research community that facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic pathways, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. However, the literature on sector-specific narratives outside of the energy and industrial sectors is currently limited, and this paper seeks to build upon existing SSP storylines by elaborating on the potential implications of SSP-related variables on forest resource management, forest product markets, wood-based bioenergy expansion, and other relevant trends in global forestry. The global forestry pathway narratives presented in this paper build on alternative futures research and multi-model inter-comparisons by further developing recent narratives with additional detail on specific issues related to the development and use of our world’s forests.

DOI:10.1561/112.00000441

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Journal of Forest Economics, Volume 34, Issue 1-2 Special issue - State of the art methods to project forest carbon stocks: Articles Overiew
See the other articles that are part of this special issue.