Journal of Forest Economics > Vol 37 > Issue

Projecting the Impact of Socioeconomic and Policy Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Forestry and Agriculture

Christopher M. Wade, RTI International and Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, USA, chwade@rti.org , Justin S. Baker, Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, USA, Jason P. H. Jones, RTI International, USA, Kemen G. Austin, RTI International, USA, Yongxia Cai, RTI International, USA, Alison Bean de Hernandez, RTI International, USA, Gregory S. Latta, Policy Analysis Group, College of Natural Resources, University of Idaho, USA, Sara B. Ohrel, Environmental Protection Agency, USA, Shaun Ragnauth, Environmental Protection Agency, USA, Jared Creason, Environmental Protection Agency, USA, Bruce McCarl, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University College, USA
 
Suggested Citation
Christopher M. Wade, Justin S. Baker, Jason P. H. Jones, Kemen G. Austin, Yongxia Cai, Alison Bean de Hernandez, Gregory S. Latta, Sara B. Ohrel, Shaun Ragnauth, Jared Creason and Bruce McCarl (2022), "Projecting the Impact of Socioeconomic and Policy Factors on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Carbon Sequestration in U.S. Forestry and Agriculture", Journal of Forest Economics: Vol. 37: No. . http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/112.00000545

Forthcoming: 30 Apr 2022
© 2021 C. M. Wade, J. S. Baker, J. P. H. Jones, K. G. Austin, Y. Cai, A. B. de Hernandez, G. S. Latta, S. B. Ohrel, S. Ragnauth, J. Creason, and B. McCarl
 
Subjects
 
Keywords
JEL Codes: Q24, Q23, Q54, Q10
Climate changeGreenhouse-gas mitigationShared Socioeconomic PathwaysLand useLand use changeForestry
 

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This is published under the terms of CC-BY.

In this article:
1. Introduction 
2. Literature Review 
3. Methods 
4. Results 
5. Discussion 
6. Conclusion 
References 

Abstract

Understanding greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the U.S. agriculture and forest sectors is critical for evaluating potential pathways to limit global average temperatures from rising more than 2°C. Using the FASOMGHG model, parameterized to reflect varying conditions across shared socioeconomic pathways, we project the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from U.S. agriculture and forestry across a range of carbon price scenarios. Under a moderate price scenario ($20 per ton CO2 with a 3% annual growth rate), cumulative mitigation potential over 2015–2055 varies substantially across SSPs, from 8.3 to 17.7 GtCO2e. Carbon sequestration in forests contributes the majority, 64–71%, of total mitigation across both sectors. We show that under a high income and population growth scenario over 60% of the total projected increase in forest carbon is driven by growth in demand for forest products, while mitigation incentives result in the remainder. This research sheds light on the interactions between alternative socioeconomic narratives and mitigation policy incentives which can help prioritize outreach, investment, and targeted policies for reducing emissions from and storing more carbon in these land use systems.

DOI:10.1561/112.00000545