Since 2020, the outlook for the European forest sector has been unusually uncertain. After the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic seemed to take off, Russia invaded Ukraine. In addition to human suffering, the war has economic consequences. Comparing scenarios quantified by global forest sector model projections, this study examines the impacts of the changes in the operation environment of the sector caused by the war on the European forest sector. They seem to be moderate in the EU. Chemical pulp production benefits from higher electricity prices and less rivalry from Russia. Energy price increase accelerates the decrease in the production of printing and writing papers and harms the mechanical forest industry that also suffers from lower GDP growths. Due to {the} embargo on Russian wood, the EU roundwood harvests decrease only slightly compared to the reference projection. The Russian forest sector loses economically much more than that in any other region due to the war. Some recent EU policies will likely affect the EU forest sector economically more than the war does.