Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy > Vol 3 > Issue 1

Credibility and Backlash

David Foster, Department of Political Science, Kenyon College, USA, foster2@kenyon.edu
 
Suggested Citation
David Foster (2022), "Credibility and Backlash", Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy: Vol. 3: No. 1, pp 61-86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1561/113.00000052

Publication Date: 09 Mar 2022
© 2022 D. Foster
 
Subjects
Elections,  Economic Theory: Game Theory,  Campaigns,  Democracy,  Electoral behavior,  Elections,  Formal modelling,  Government,  Public opinion,  Presidential politics,  Asymmetric information,  Voting behavior
 
Keywords
Formal modelimmigrationbacklashcheap talkcontact hypothesis
 

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In this article:
Introduction 
The Model 
Extensions 
The Case of Backlash against Immigration in the US 
Conclusion 
References 

Abstract

Recent politics has been characterized by politicians’ harsh anti-immigration appeals and backlash against immigrants. I present a novel explanation for this backlash that hinges on politicians’ ability to make such appeals credible. The starting point is a cheap talk model in which a politician (sender) is aligned with one of two opposed groups (receivers) and seeks to communicate her preferences to win support. Importantly, an increase in the weaker group’s capacity may enable credible communication by the opposed type of politician, ironically making the weaker group worse off. Illustrating the model, I discuss how Donald Trump credibly communicated alignment with anti-immigration groups in 2016 through harsh messaging against immigrants, whose power was increasing. More broadly, the model and case show how the behavior of strategic actors can underpin realignments, with shifts in relative group power proving crucial in enabling politicians to assemble novel political coalitions.

DOI:10.1561/113.00000052

Companion

Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, Volume 3, Issue 1 Special Issue - The Political Economy of Populism, Part II
See the other articles that are part of this special issue.