Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy > Vol 3 > Issue 1

Credibility and Backlash

David Foster, Department of Political Science, Kenyon College, USA,
Suggested Citation
David Foster (2022), "Credibility and Backlash", Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy: Vol. 3: No. 1, pp 61-86.

Publication Date: 09 Mar 2022
© 2022 D. Foster
Elections,  Economic theory,  Campaigns,  Democracy,  Electoral behavior,  Formal modelling,  Government,  Public opinion,  Presidential politics,  Asymmetric information,  Voting behavior
Formal modelimmigrationbacklashcheap talkcontact hypothesis


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In this article:
The Model 
The Case of Backlash against Immigration in the US 


Recent politics has been characterized by politicians’ harsh anti-immigration appeals and backlash against immigrants. I present a novel explanation for this backlash that hinges on politicians’ ability to make such appeals credible. The starting point is a cheap talk model in which a politician (sender) is aligned with one of two opposed groups (receivers) and seeks to communicate her preferences to win support. Importantly, an increase in the weaker group’s capacity may enable credible communication by the opposed type of politician, ironically making the weaker group worse off. Illustrating the model, I discuss how Donald Trump credibly communicated alignment with anti-immigration groups in 2016 through harsh messaging against immigrants, whose power was increasing. More broadly, the model and case show how the behavior of strategic actors can underpin realignments, with shifts in relative group power proving crucial in enabling politicians to assemble novel political coalitions.



Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, Volume 3, Issue 1 Special Issue - The Political Economy of Populism, Part II
See the other articles that are part of this special issue.